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Michigan vs. Villanova odds, line: College basketball picks, predictions from advanced computer model on 6-3 run

The 18th-ranked Michigan Wolverines will look to avenge last season’s loss to the Villanova Wildcats in the NCAA title game on Wednesday at 6:30 p.m. ET. Both teams enter Wednesday’s top 25 showdown with a 2-0 record and are eager to make an early-season statement. Despite being undefeated straight-up, both teams have yet to excel in the eyes of oddsmakers, as Michigan is winless against the spread, while Villanova is 1-1. Jay Wright’s squad is a seven-point favorite in the latest Villanova vs. Michigan odds, with the over-under at 138, down from an open of 140.5. Before locking in your own Villanova vs. Michigan picks and predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $5,200 to $100 players on its top-rated selections. It entered this week on a 6-3 run on its top-rated picks, and anyone who has followed it is up big. 

For Wednesday, we can tell you the model is leaning over, but it’s locked in a strong against the spread pick that hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows Villanova had to re-stock after winning its second national title in three years, but that hasn’t slowed down the Wildcats, who are averaging 93 points per game so far this season. Villanova is led by guard Phil Booth, who enters Wednesday’s matchup against the Wolverines averaging 20 points and 4.5 assists per game. Villanova also has forward Eric Paschall, who is averaging 18.5 points and 7.5 rebounds. Look for each one to make a major difference on Wednesday night.

But just because Villanova has re-stocked its offensive talent doesn’t mean it can cover the spread against Michigan’s stingy defense. In fact, the Wolverines rank No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 40.5 points per game so far.

Like the Wildcats, the Wolverines will have several new faces as they seek another Final Four berth, but 6-6 senior guard Charles Matthews (13 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game last season) is back. He picked up right where he left off, averaging 15 points and 4.5 rebounds through two games. Towering 7-1 center Jon Teske has taken his game up a notch as well, averaging nine points, 6.5 rebounds and 4.5 blocks.

Coach John Beilein also welcomes in arguably his best recruiting class in 11 seasons, led by 6-7 Ignas Brazdeikis, who leads the team in scoring (15.5 points per game). Beilein’s Wolverines have managed a pair of 19-point wins thus far over Holy Cross and Norfolk State.

What side of the Michigan vs. Villanova spread do you need to be all over? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Michigan vs. Villanova spread hits almost 70 percent of the time, all from the model that has crushed college hoops, and find out.

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