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Michigan absolutely owns the football rivalry with Indiana, winning the last 22 meetings outright. But the Hoosiers are 4-2-1 against the spread over the last seven meetings, pushing two games into overtime. Can Indiana keep things close Saturday afternoon at the Big House?
College football point spread: The Wolverines opened as 26.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 45.4-15.4 Wolverines (College football picks on every game)
Why the Indiana Hoosiers can cover the spread
The Hoosiers just snapped a four-game losing skid with a much-needed 34-32 victory over Maryland last week. Indiana spotted the Terrapins the first six points of the game, then scored the next 21 and led 31-15 in the third quarter. The Hoosiers then fell down 32-31 with five minutes to go but kicked a field goal with two minutes left to regain the lead and held on from there.
For the day Indiana got beat along most of the stat sheet but won the turnover battle 4-1, creating a plus-14 point differential.
The Hoosiers had lost their previous two games by a total of 12 points. They’re also 3-2 ATS over their last five games, with covers as dogs against Ohio State and Penn State. At 5-5 overall Indiana needs one win in its last two games to become bowl-eligible.
Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread
The Wolverines extended their winning streak to nine in a row with a 42-7 victory over Rutgers last week. Michigan took an early 7-0 lead, let the Scarlet Knights tie the score at 7-7 on an 80-yard play from scrimmage, then scored the last 35 points of the game.
If not for that one busted play on defense the Wolverines would have covered the spread as 37-point favorites.
On the afternoon Michigan out-gained Rutgers 453-252. So the Wolverines have now out-gained each of their 10 opponents this season, six of them by 200 yards or more.
At 7-0 in conference play Michigan can clinch the Big Ten East with a victory Saturday and another next week at Ohio State. The Wolverines also remain right in the thick of contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Smart betting pick
Michigan won this matchup last year 27-20 in overtime, and will win this game, too. However, the Wolverines have that supreme showdown with the Buckeyes next week, and may be tempted to rest key people once this game is in hand. And playing at home means the spread is inflated. Smart money takes the Hoosiers and the points.
College football betting trends
The total has gone over in five of Indiana’s last seven games vs Michigan.
The total has gone over in four of Michigan’s last five games at home.
Indiana is 3-32 SU in its last 35 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.